Cruz, Trump in Dead Heat

Jan 26, 2016

With less than a week before the Iowa Caucuses, it seems to be a two-man race in the GOP field. The latest Quinnipiac University poll shows a statical dead heat between real-estate mogul Donald Trump with 31-percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with 29-percent. 

But 39-percent of those polled say they might still change their minds. And since roughly a quarter of Republicans surveyed say they would definitely not support Trump, and only half that number say the same about Cruz, the Texas senator has an edge.

"What often happens is voters learn new information in the final day, or days of the campaign that can swing them, voting for one candidate or the other," says Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown. 

Regarding top issues among the Republicans surveyed, 18-percent list "terrorism," 11-percent say "foreign policy" and 10-percent "the federal deficient." However, at 27-percent cite "jobs and economy" as their number one concern.  

"[Those polled] say that they think that Trump is much better suited than Cruz to fix the economy," says Brown. "Whether it’s because of his plans, whether it’s because he a multi-zillionaire, who knows? But he’s obviously given the impression that he knows how to make money." 

Ideologically, Cruz is favored among those who identify as "very conservative," members of the Tea Party, and evangelicals. Trump polls better with those who label themselves as "somewhat conservative," "moderate," or "liberal." 

The poll's distant third place goes to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio with 13-percent. Brown says at this stage, "it would take a miracle" for him to be competitive. All other GOP candidates polled in the single digits.